Is A New Mac Pro Really Coming And Does It Even Matter?
The long-awaited Mac Pro, probably the last Apple Mac to port across to the Apple Silicon processor is still something of a mystery. Apple says that it is still coming, but with the recent announcements suggesting some major changes and delays, is it still necessary? We investigate.
The Quick Answer
There was a time when the Mac Pro was the cornerstone of Apple’s range of computers. But more and more, it looks as if it is becoming an obsolete model. With revelations from reliable source Mark Gurman, announcing that Apple are cancelling the Extreme Apple Silicon chip format. More recently he has confirmed that it will not be possible to expand the RAM in the planned Apple silicon-powered Mac Pro. With the Mac Studio hosting the most powerful Apple Silicon chip it is very doubtful that a new Mac Pro will bring anything useful to the table.
In Depth
When Apple announced the move to Apple Silicon in the WWDC 2020 keynote address, it was generally expected that the Mac Pro would be one of the last models to be upgraded to Apple Silicon powered processing.
Then at the Mac Studio launch event back in March 2022, Apple even stressed that the Studio was not a Mac Pro replacement with Apple senior vice president of Hardware Engineering John Ternus taking the trouble to confirm that a Mac Pro was coming "another day" to clear up any confusion about the future of the Mac Pro product line.
More And More Delays
Interestingly, at the time, Mark Gurman revealed a tidbit about the Mac Pro development in his interview on YouTube with Vadim Yuriev, saying…
“They also had an M1 Mac Pro ready to go months ago. But they scrapped that to wait for the M2 version.”
In June 2022, we learned that Apple has been testing a Mac Pro, codenamed J180. This machine is expected to include a successor to the M1 Ultra chip used in the Mac Studio computer.
When it comes to design, it is being suggested that the new Mac Pro will only see a few design changes, with the main change being getting rid of the current Intel Xeon chips as part of its plan to make the entire range of Mac computers powered by Apple silicon.
Passed The 2 Year Target
With the passing of WWDC 2022 in June, Apple has passed the two-year point since Apple announced the transition from Intel to its own chips. Even if we start the clock from the point that the first Apple Silicon Macs were announced in October 2020, it’s still more than two years from that point.
When Will Apple Release The New Mac Pro?
As to when to expect the new Apple silicon-powered Mac Pro, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo tweeted that a new Mac Pro would ship in 2023.
However, Mark Gurman had a slightly different take on this. In his interview with YouTuber Vadim Yuriev, Mark said that he thinks the Apple silicon-powered Mac Pro will ultimately be announced at the end of the year and then released in 2023.
In the October 30th edition of his Power On newsletter, Mark Gurman had this to say about the only Mac that is yet to see an Apple Silicon version, the Mac Pro…
“The first Apple Silicon Mac Pro is clearly running behind the company’s own self-imposed timeline. When it announced the transition to homegrown chips in 2020, Apple said the move would take about two years. The revamped Mac Pro, coming next year, will clearly miss that schedule.
But I think we have a pretty clear reason why, and it’s not a bad thing: The machine will be superior to what Apple originally intended to offer.
As I wrote recently, my belief is that the first non-Intel Mac Pro will have options for 24 and 48 CPU cores and 76 and 152 graphics cores—along with up to 256 gigabytes of memory.”
What Has Changed Now?
Back in June 2022, we learned that the Apple Silicon-powered Mac Pro was also expected to offer the option of the M2 Extreme, which is expected to be two M2 Ultra chips combined, just like the M1 Ultra is two M1 Max chips put together. However, in the December 18th issue of his Power On newsletter, reliable source Mark Gurman from Bloomberg announced that…
“The company has likely scrapped that higher-end configuration, which may disappoint Apple’s most demanding users — the photographers, editors and programmers who prize that kind of computing power.
The company made the decision because of both the complexity and cost of producing a processor that is essentially four M2 Max chips fused together. It also will help Apple and partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. save chip-production resources for higher-volume machines”
There have also been concerns that if Apple hadn’t done something, the Mac Pro price would be so high that very few people would want to buy it.
“Based on Apple’s current pricing structure, an M2 Extreme version of a Mac Pro would probably cost at least $10,000 — without any other upgrades — making it an extraordinarily niche product that likely isn’t worth the development costs, engineering resources and production bandwidth it would require.”
Instead, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman believes that the new Apple Silicon powered Mac Pro, when it is released in 2023, will rely on the M2 Ultra SoC but still retain its unique features offering easy expandability.
Scroll forward to January 2023, and according to reliable sources, such as Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, Apple is struggling to scale their new architecture for the Mac Pro. In his most recent report, filed Sunday January 10th, 2023, he wrote;
“In another disappointment, the new Mac Pro will look identical to the 2019 model. It will also lack one key feature from the Intel version: user-upgradeable RAM. That's because the memory is tied directly to the M2 Ultra's motherboard. Still, there are two SSD storage slots and capacity for graphics, media, and networking cards.”
The Case For A New Mac Pro
At which point, we have to ask, “what is the point of a new Apple Silicon powered Mac Pro?
Expandability
Professionals have always wanted expandability to be able to add things like cards, memory, and storage. Currently, the Intel-powered Mac Pro is the only Apple machine that offers all of this. Yes, it is possible to use an external chassis or mounting hardware for things like external DSP cards. However, some pro users do not like this option for a number of reasons. But we cannot escape the fact that the need for expandability for cards is a shrinking market. Other than pro audio users needing somewhere to locate their HDX cards, the need for PCI-e cards is reducing, especially the graphics cards. With the integrated and ever more powerful GPUs including in the Apple Silicon SoCs, there is less and less need for standalone graphics cards. Even the need for HDX cards is reducing, and with Avid producing their own HDX expansion chassis and the improvements from companies like Sonnet, one of the key selling points for the Mac Pro has diminished significantly.
However, external chassis don’t solve the problem of expanding memory or storage.
Pro Construction
What Apple manages to squeeze inside modern computers is incredible. However, while these machines are designed to withstand rigorous and long hours, they may not cope with running all day, every day, for years.
Compare a Mac Studio with a Mac Pro, and you can see there is much more airflow, and the build is to a much higher standard. That said, we are yet to see any evidence that a Mac Studio is unable to live up to continuous use, however, the same cannot be said for the Mac Studio’s smaller brother with some Mac mini users have seen their machines suffer from heat-related damage.
Secure Connectivity
Another concern expressed by some pro users is that USB-C/Thunderbolt 4 cables aren’t very secure. For example, when using Pro Tools HDX cards, the ports to connect to the interface on Sonnet and Avid hardware are locking, making unintended disconnection less likely. However, connecting HDX cards to any machine other than a Mac Pro requires using an external chassis connected via Thunderbolt cables. These have a higher chance of being pulled out by accident. Third parties have made some attempts to create more secure connectivity, such as the OWC ClingOn, which can be used in standalone mode, or coupled with the Startech locking USB C cable.
The Case Against A New Mac Pro
The Mac Studio
In both real-world use and in benchmarks, the Mac Studio is an impressive machine with many professional users saying that the Mac Studio is more than enough for their needs. In many benchmarks, the newer Apple Silicon chip outperforms the older Mac Pro at a fraction of the cost. In essence, with the Mac Studio, Apple has removed the need for many professional users to invest in the Mac Pro, making the ROI not compelling enough when compared to the power of the new Mac Studio.
A Strategic Conundrum
It seems that maybe Apple has made the Mac Studio so good that the cancellation of the Apple Silicon Extreme chip and the lack of expandable memory could make an Apple Silicon-powered Mac Pro a white elephant.
As already stated in this article. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, in his most recent report, published on Sunday, January 10th, 2023, went on to say…
“The company has likely scrapped that higher-end configuration, which may disappoint Apple’s most demanding users — the photographers, editors and programmers who prize that kind of computing power.
The company made the decision because of both the complexity and cost of producing a processor that is essentially four M2 Max chips fused together. It also will help Apple and partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. save chip-production resources for higher-volume machines”
If it is the case that Apple does release a Mac Pro, which isn’t a fully scaled machine based on the new Silicon technology, it becomes somewhat of a reputational blow. In effect, they admit that SoC-based computers have limitations they currently can’t overcome.
The Return on Investment
Together with all these factors, the final reason Apple may want to ditch a new Mac Pro is simply the ROI compared to the rest of their business. Computers last year accounted for about 10% of their revenue. Mac Pro is a niche product, even more niche than it was before the Mac Studio shipped. Is it worth Apple investing time, money, and possible reputational damage to keep the Mac Pro alive? It may be a better option for them to delay it further until they’ve found technological solutions to the current problems of scaling SoC architecture in a way that offers both expandability and performance.
Conclusion
Will the new Mac Pro ship? Probably. There’s no indication that Apple has completely thrown in the towel yet. Being one of the most innovative technology companies on the planet, they certainly won’t want to if they think they can solve the problems.
However, even if the new Mac Pro ships, one must ask how many people still need one. Undoubtedly, this group of people is getting smaller by the year.
A Word About This Article
As the Experts team considered how we could better help the community, we thought that some of you are time-poor and don’t have the time to read a long article or watch a long video. In 2023 we are going to be trying out articles that have a fast takeaway right at the start and then an opportunity to go deeper if you wish. Let us know if you like this idea in the comments.