Apple - No New M3 Macs Expected Until 2024 At The Earliest
Apple usually holds an event in early October to announce new Apple Mac computers, and there has been intense speculation as to when Apple could release some new M3-powered Macs. In this article, we investigate which Mac computers Apple will update next, and it now looks like we might have to wait until 2024 at the earliest for any M3-powered Macs.
It’s Been Awhile
It’s been over 4 months since Apple announced the most recent batch of new Macs, which included the first Apple Silicon Mac Pro, a new M2 powered Mac Studio and a 15-inch MacBook Air. Before that, we have to scroll back to January 2023 when Apple released the M2 Pro and M2 Max powered 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro laptops and M2 powered Mac mini computers.
As to an October 2023 event to announce new Macs, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman doesn’t believe there will be an event this month or even this year. Instead, Gurman believes that Apple will announce new Macs via press releases when they are ready. He told the MacRumors Podcast listeners…
“I'm not sure they have enough to drag people down to Cupertino to watch the video like they do for this [iPhone 15] launch”
Adding that he expects Apple to make the announcements with a press release and short video as they did for the 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro laptops earlier this year.
So, even without an October Mac event, what new Macs do we expect Apple to release and when?
M3 Chips Incoming But When?
Although Apple hasn’t announced them yet, with the full range of Mac computers now hosts to M2 Powered chips with one exception, the iMac, we can be confident that any new Macs will come with the new M3 chips using a new 3nm manufacturing process which will make them even faster. What we are less sure about is which computers and when they might be released. In July 2023, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman said this in the 16th July edition of his Power On newsletter…
“Now that Apple has gotten the 15-inch MacBook Air and new M2 Ultra-based Macs out the door, the October launch could feature the first Macs with M3 chips. October is too early for new high-end MacBook Pros or desktops, so the first beneficiaries of the new chip should be the next iMac, 13-inch MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro.”
In the 6th August edition of his Power On newsletter, Mark Gurman reported that the logs revealed Apple is already testing M3-powered models, with the first one being tested probably being a Mac mini with 8 CPU cores (four efficiency cores and four performance cores), 10 graphics processor cores and 24 gigabytes of memory.
The logs also show the following M3 Macs are in development…
M3 13-inch MacBook Air (codenamed Mac 15,1 and J513/J613)
M3 15-inch MacBook Air (codenamed Mac 15,2 and J515/J615)
M3 13-inch MacBook Pro (codenamed Mac 15,3 and J504)
M3 iMac (codenamed Mac 15,4, Mac 15,5, J433 and J434)
M3 Pro and M3 Max 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros (codenamed Mac 15,7, Mac 15,8, J514 and J516)
Possible M3 Mac mini (codenamed Mac 15,12)
In the 13th August edition of his Power On newsletter, Mark revealed even more from the 3rd party developer logs that he has seen. From these and his other sources, Mark has been able to provide a much more detailed breakdown of each new Apple silicon chip…
M3:
Specifications: eight CPU cores (four performance and four efficiency) and 10 GPU cores.
Macs that will use the chip: Base MacBook Pro, 13-inch MacBook Air, 15-inch MacBook Air, Mac mini, iMac. (The next iPad Pro will get the M3 as well.)
M3 Pro:
Base configuration: 12 CPU cores (six performance and six efficiency) and 18 GPU cores.
Top configuration: 14 CPU cores (eight performance and six efficiency) and 20 GPU cores.
Macs that will use the chip: 14-inch MacBook Pro, 16-inch MacBook Pro, Mac mini.
M3 Max:
Base configuration: 16 CPU cores (12 performance and four efficiency) and 32 GPU cores.
Top configuration: 16 CPU cores (12 performance and four efficiency) and 40 GPU cores.
Macs that will use the chip: 14-inch MacBook Pro, 16-inch MacBook Pro, Mac Studio.
M3 Ultra:
Base configuration: 32 CPU cores (24 performance and eight efficiency) and 64 GPU cores.
Top configuration: 32 CPU cores (24 performance and eight efficiency) and 80 GPU cores.
Macs that will use the chip: Mac Studio and Mac Pro (if Apple continues making those).
Changes In Unified Memory Options
These developer log files have also revealed that Apple is testing models with different memory configurations from the currently available Mac computers. For example, the Mac that came to light, which is probably a Mac mini, had 24GB of unified memory. Moving onto the MacBook Pro laptops under test, show options with 36 and 48GB of unified memory. Currently, the MacBook Pro laptops offer 16, 32, 64 and 96GB configurations. However, Mark Gurman does make this caveat…
“The actual specifications could change during the production process, or consumer versions could differ from what Apple is testing internally”.
On October 12th 2023, supply chain monitor DigiTimes published a 5-year projection of global notebook sales in which it said…
“In 2023, the share of notebooks built using Arm-based processors will likely decrease rather than increase because Apple, which adopts in-house designed Arm-based CPUs for most of its notebook lineups, is expected to experience a significant decline in shipments in 2023 as the US brand vendor plans to transit to CPUs built by a 3nm node at TSMC for performance upgrading in 2024.”
With that in mind, let’s look at each model in the Mac range and when Apple might release a new M3-powered version…
Apple iMac - Expected Early To Mid 2024
Apple last updated the iMac in 2021 when it released an M1 Apple Silicon iMac, but that is it; no M2 iMacs have been announced since. In addition, Apple discontinued the iMac Pro back in 2021, and then in March 2022, it discontinued the 27-inch Intel-based version of the iMac, leaving the 24-inch iMac with the M1 chip as the only remaining iMac model. The consensus seemed to be that Apple had effectively replaced the 27-inch iMac with the Mac Studio and its matching Studio Display, with some sources suggesting that Apple had suspended all high-end iMac development.
However, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman was not one of them. In his PowerOn newsletter in early July 2022, he outlined that Apple had been working on at least two iMac models, choosing to skip the M2 chip and go to the as-yet-unreleased M3 series of chips. He suggested that Apple would be likely to launch an updated 24-inch iMac featuring the standard M3 chip in late 2023 and that they are continuing the development of a high-end iMac…
“I also still believe that Apple is working on a larger-screened iMac aimed at the professional market. I'd imagine this will use a variation of the M3 chip, likely an M3 Pro and M3 Max. That would match the chips inside of the MacBook Pro. I don't think the combination of a Mac Studio or Mac mini plus an Apple Studio Display cuts it for many pro users who want more screen real estate.”
In his PowerOn newsletter dated February 12th 2023, Mark Gurman confirmed his expectation that Apple would skip updating the iMac with the M2 chip and instead wait to release an iMac with the M3 chip.
“I haven't seen anything to indicate there will be a new iMac until the M3 chip generation, which won't arrive until the tail end of this year at the earliest or next year. So if you want to stick with the iMac, you'll just have to sit tight.”
Then, in July 2023, Mark suggested that Apple will include the iMac alongside the 13-inch MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro in the first batch of Mac computers to receive the M3 update.
Since this article was first published on October 17th 2023, supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo posted on ‘X’ (formerly known as Twitter)…
“New iMac prediction update: 1. 24-inch iMac refresh in 2024. 2. Higher-end 32-inch mini LED display iMac in 2025.”
To which Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman replied, saying…
“Apple has been working on the M3 iMac 24 inch for some time. Wrote about the 32-inch iMac Pro in June, work on which still remains early.”
All of this points to Apple not releasing a long-overdue update to the iMac model until sometime in 2024 rather than late 2023, as previously predicted, with a large-screen version of the iMac not coming until 2025.
13-Inch MacBook Air - Expected Early To Mid 2024
Although Apple announced an M2-powered 15-inch MacBook Air in June 2023, the sales of which haven’t met expectations (see below), the 13-inch MacBook Air was last updated in June 2022 as part of the first round of M2-powered Mac computers.
Just a couple weeks after Apple announced the first M2-powered Mac computers, including the 13-inch MacBook Air, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman was already reporting on the next generation of the MacBook Air laptop.
“Apple is also already at work on the M2’s successor, the M3, and the company is planning to use that chip as early as next year with updates to the 13-inch MacBook Air code-named J513, a 15-inch MacBook Air known as J515, a new iMac code-named J433 and possibly a 12-inch laptop that’s still in early development.”
Mark did not commit to a time frame for these machines to come to market. However, the Taiwanese publication DigiTimes suggested that we will see a new 13-inch MacBook Air with an M3 SoC in the second half of this year…
"The supply chain is more focused on the more affordable MacBook Air, which is expected to be updated in the second half of 2023 and may be equipped with a 3nm processor."
With the announcement by DigiTimes (see above) and the updated information from Bloomberg, Mark Gurman revised his advice regarding the release timeframe for the M3-powered MacBook Air laptop. In the October 15th 2023 edition of his PowerOn newsletter, Mark said…
“Those waiting for a new MacBook Air will likely need to hold on a bit longer. I’m told that the 13-inch and 15-inch M3 models have just reached the EVT stage, or engineering verification test, which would put them on schedule for between spring and summer of next year at the earliest.”
All of this makes it likely that the 13-inch MacBook Air will be released in early to mid 2024.
13-Inch MacBook Pro - Expected Early To Mid 2024
Just like the 13-inch MacBook Air, the 13-inch MacBook Pro was last updated in June 2022.
The 13-inch MacBook Pro is the last of the list of three Mac computers that Mark Gurman believed would be released with M3 chips before the end of 2023. However, supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in early September 2023 that he believes that it is unlikely that Apple will release any MacBook Pro laptops in 2023, stating on X (formerly known as Twitter)…
“It seems that Apple will not launch new MacBook models (equipped with M3 series processors) before the end of this year.”
However, Ming-Chi Kuo only ruled out MacBook models in his post, and together with the DigiTimes report (see above) released today makes it more likely that the 13-inch MacBook Pro will be released in early 2024 rather than late 2023 as previously projected.
Mac Mini - Expected Mid 2024
In the 23rd July edition of his Power On newsletter, the same one in which he announced his belief that Apple would release M3 powered iMac, 13-inch MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro computers before the end of 2023, Mark Gurman added this regarding the Mac mini…
“It's a sure thing that an M3 version of the Mac mini is eventually coming.”
As the Mac mini was only updated in January 2023, this makes complete sense. Apple is going to want at least 12 months out of the M2 models before considering an upgrade. So, we would expect the M3-powered Mac mini to be released sometime in the first half of 2024.
14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro - Expected Mid 2024
Apple had no sooner announced the M2 versions of the 14 and 16-inch Macbook Pro laptops in January 2023, and analyst Ming-chi Kuo was suggesting that there would be M3-powered MacBook Pro laptops released in 2024 using TSMC's 3-nanometer process. He tweeted…
“I expect the next new MacBook Pro models, which will adopt M3 Pro/M3 Max processors made by 3nm (likely TSMC's N3P or N3S), will go to mass production in 1H24.”
Then, in the 22nd January 2023 edition of his PowerOn Newsletter, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported…
“I see the M2 as a stopgap chip ahead of a better-performing M3 series coming late this year [2023] or early next year [2024]. It will be based on the more advanced, 3-nanometer production process. Apple is already working on M3 versions of the iMac and MacBook Air. And it’s developing a MacBook Pro revamp for 2025 with OLED screens and long-awaited touch support.”
Roll forward to February 2023, and according to Korean ET News, Apple has ordered four different sizes of OLED displays, with the largest two destined for Apple’s 14 and 16-inch MacBook Pro laptops.
“This is the first time that Apple has applied OLED to iPad and MacBook instead of LCD. Small and medium-sized OLED market that centered on smartphones will grow a new momentum with the expansion of OLED installation from Apple, a company with a great influence on the world.”
However, earlier this month, DigiTimes reported that Apple is preparing to release new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models with more power-efficient mini-LED displays before the year is out, so we may see new models of the M2-powered MacBook Pro laptops with more efficient screens very soon. That said, the same report also says that the change to OLED displays won’t happen until 2026, citing the burn-in problem usually associated with OLED screens as a remaining concern, given that laptops tend to be left on for extended periods.
Mark Gurman has revised his advice regarding the release timeframe for the M3-powered MacBook Pro laptops. In the October 15th edition of his PowerOn newsletter Mark said…
“The 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros with M3 Pro and M3 Max chips have reached the DVT stage — short for design validation test. That means the machines are nearing mass production. The progress suggests a consumer release between early and spring 2024, matching the previous year’s timing.”
All of this brings his advice in line with others like analyst Ming-chi Kuo. So it looks like we can expect M2-powered 14 and 16-inch MacBook Pro laptops with more efficient screens to be released in late 2023, then M3 Powered models, still with miniLED screens, released in the first half of 2024, with OLED models coming in 2026.
Mac Studio - Expected Mid to Late 2024
The M2-powered Mac Studio desktop computer was announced at WWDC in June 2023. This machine seems to hit the sweet spot not only for pro-audio users but many other users too, especially among Mac Pro users. Even before the M2 Mac Pro and M2 Mac Studio were announced, back in February 2023, we asked Apple Mac Pro 2023 - Is It Already Dead In The Water?
In June 2023, Apple announced both a Mac Studio with M2 Pro and M2 Max options as well as an M2 Mac Pro. As a result, in our article Which to Buy - Apple Mac Studio or Mac Pro 2023? we reviewed the Mac Studio and Mac Pro alongside each other.
So when do we expect a new Mac Studio? As a rule, Apple doesn’t update a Mac model in under 12 months, which makes it very unlikely we will see an M3-powered Mac Studio until the middle of 2024 at the earliest and in reality, we wouldn’t expect to see the M3 model until later in 2024.
Mac Pro - Expected Late 2024, If At All
The Mac Pro is a similar story to the Mac Studio as Apple released the M2-powered models together in June 2023, meaning that we are not likely to see an M3-powered Mac Pro until late in 2024 at best.
In the 13th August 2023 edition of his Power On newsletter, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman dropped a bit of a bombshell with regard to which Mac computers would benefit from the M3 Ultra SoC. He said…
“Macs that will use the chip: Mac Studio and Mac Pro (if Apple continues making those).”
This concern other the future of the Mac Pro may have a good foundation. For example, Apple Insider’s Malcolm Owen has said…
“There's a chance that Apple's fumbled Mac Pro update could lead to it giving up on the model for the moment.
With the introduction of the Apple Silicon model, some elements of the Mac Pro's utility became less impressive, in part due to the existence of the Mac Studio. With both the Mac Pro and Mac Studio able to use Apple Silicon, and with the Mac Studio being generally cheaper to purchase, it made the Mac Pro a hard purchase for anyone just wanting high levels of performance.”
The Mac Pro’s claims of being ‘expandable’ took a serious dent with the Apple Silicon model. This latest variant does not support additional graphics cards at all, and the SoC architecture also means that the memory cannot be extended as it is an integral part of the SoC design.
The one area that is still expandable is the range of SSD storage options. If this is of interest to you, then do check out our article Upgradable SSD Is Back In A Mac!
Coming back to the PCIe slots, one area of good news, especially for those who want to use the PCIe slots for additional storage, is that six of the seven PCIe slots are 4th generation, which Apple claims provide…
“twice the bandwidth for audio and video I/O, networking, and storage cards”. Apple goes on to claim that “the latest PCIe gen 4 SSD cards, for example, are capable of a colossal 26GB/s”.
All in all, it looks like the future of the Mac Pro is by no means certain. Unfortunately, the SoC design has compromised some of the key features users wanted from the Mac Pro model. As the Mac Pro sales are a very small part of Apple’s sales figures, Mark Gurman’s question about the future of the Mac Pro is well founded.
In Conclusion
There is no doubt that M3-powered Macs are coming. In late December 2022, we learned that Apple’s chip supplier, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), started mass production of the 3nm chips that will be used in the next generations of Apple silicon powered computers. Then, in February 2023, according to a report by DigiTimes, Apple booked 100% of TSMC’s 3nm output even though the product is more expensive and has a lower utilisation rate. It has been reported that these 3nm SoCs are apparently destined for Apple’s iPhone 15 Pro and the new M3 Macs.
The only doubt is the exact timing of when each model will be updated. It is now unlikely that we will see any new M3-powered Macs until 2024. However, there is one factor that might encourage Apple to keep moving forward with new models with new chips is a drop in revenue from computer sales. There have been several reports that Apple’s sales have dropped significantly more than other brands making computers. Mac sales fell around 24%, whereas other brands fell between 4.4% and 15.3%.
On October 18th 2023, supply chain analyst Ming-chi Kuo posted this on ‘X’…
“4Q23 MacBook supply chain shipments decline significantly by 25–35% YoY”
Ming-chi Kuo goes on to expand on this in his blog…
“Demand for the new 15-inch MacBook Air dropped significantly after the back-to-school (BTS) period, with shipment forecasts revised downward by about 20% or more this year. MacBook shipments are expected to decline by approximately 30% YoY (Year on Year) to about 17 million units in 2023. Current challenges for the MacBook include declining work-from-home (WFH) demand and the potential waning consumer appeal of Apple’s silicon and mini-LED.”
He goes on to explain why he believes why Apple is pausing the release of new models…
“There are no new products in 4Q23, and MacBook shipment momentum will be significantly lower than in past peak seasons. The key to no new products is that Apple needs to clear inventory and reformulate new product and marketing strategies for 2024.”
All of that said, it is no surprise that Apple gets a big bump in sales when it releases new models. This possibility was given more credence with the DigiTimes report released on October 12th, which said…
“In 2024, major brands will likely see shipment growth compared to 2023. Specifically, Apple and Dell will probably benefit from a more noticeable recovery in the high-end consumer and commercial market segments, leading to improved sales performance.”
However, in his blog, Ming-chi Kuo questions whether this might come to pass…
“Apple expects the M3 processor to boost MacBook shipments in 2024, but it remains to be seen whether this strategy will be effective.”
With his supply chain knowledge, he goes on to suggest reasons why this might be the case…
“The ASP (Average Selling Price) of assembly and key components for the MacBook is significantly higher than that of general Windows notebooks (by more than three times), which significantly impacts the revenues and profits of key MacBook suppliers.”
This leaves Apple with some hard choices: increase the price to maintain the profitability of the brand and its supply chain, or keep the price down, squeeze the supply chain and run the risk of elements of the supply chain failing because of lack of revenue.
It seems that all is not that rosy in Apple’s Garden of Eden when it comes to Mac computers.